Geopolitical Shifts and the Changing Landscape for Global Investors

Medien
zurück zu Perspektiven
02/2026

Geopolitical Shifts and the Changing Landscape for Global Investors

Why Today’s Geopolitics May Matter More for Markets Than in the Past

Geopolitics has topped investors’ list of concerns ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the inauguration of Donald Trump, and the subsequent realignment of American foreign policy—particularly the instrumentalization of trade policy. In recent weeks, these developments have intensified further. The arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, renewed US claims on Greenland, the re-emergence of tariff threats against European trading partners, the brutally suppressed uprisings in Iran and fears of potential US intervention, and the rising risk of escalation in the China–Taiwan conflict have all contributed to mounting uncertainty.

Historically, investors have learned that—aside from rare exceptions such as the 1973 oil shock following the Arab embargo—geopolitical disruptions tend to leave only limited lasting marks on global equity markets. Regional markets, however, can be significantly affected. One recent example is the continued underperformance of German small-cap stocks, which have yet to recover from the 2022 energy price shock.

Recent market behaviour has echoed these patterns. Global stock markets have continued their rally, though with notable regional and sector divergence. European, Asian, and emerging market equities have again begun to outperform the previously dominant US market. Yet given the magnitude of the current geopolitical realignment, it feels increasingly plausible that “this time may be different.” The shifts in US trade and foreign policy appear so fundamental that they could exert more persistent influence on reserve currencies and global capital markets. At the same time, political attacks on the Federal Reserve and increasingly reckless fiscal policy have fuelled concerns that the US dollar’s era as a stable reserve and safe-haven currency could be drawing to a close.  

These concerns have been reflected in the dollar’s behaviour. Historically, the dollar has tended to appreciate alongside rising US Treasury yields, as higher interest rates improved its attractiveness. In recent months—after episodes of political pressure on the Federal Reserve and its Board members—Treasury yields rose while the dollar weakened, a pattern more typical of emerging market currencies.

The same dynamics have also contributed to gold’s extraordinary performance. Gold surged in 2025 and into 2026 amid heightened geopolitical risks and strong demand from emerging market central banks seeking insulation from sanctions. Momentum-driven buying further amplified the rally.

The nomination of Kevin Warsh—an experienced central banker seen as relatively hawkish on quantitative easing and committed to the Federal Reserve’s institutional mandate—has since helped calm markets. The US dollar has resumed rising in tandem with Treasury yields, while gold suffered one of its steepest two-day corrections in decades as risks were partially repriced.

Still, we doubt that conditions will simply revert to normal. The break from the previous rules-based international order is so profound that long-standing allies are likely to question their reliance on the US—as a trading partner, as a financial centre, and as the issuer of the world’s dominant reserve currency. Washington’s deliberate weaponization of economic dependencies has underscored the need for diversification and derisking. No one articulated this more clearly than Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in his speech at the World Economic Forum in January.

Countries with significant US export exposure are therefore likely to diversify their export destinations and reduce reliance on US import demand. Yet selling fewer goods to the US also means generating fewer dollar revenues that would traditionally be reinvested in US dollar assets such as Treasuries. At the same time, major institutional investors—including pension funds, insurers, and sovereign wealth funds—may begin gradually reducing their US-dollar exposure. Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, announced in early February that it will cut exposure to the US over the coming year —a move echoed by several hedge funds and Nordic pension funds. As we argued in our US dollar analysis last June, the dollar and US financial markets remain indispensable in both the short and long term; however, even a gradual shift toward derisking should create structural headwinds for the dollar in the years ahead.

This environment is likely to benefit alternative hard currencies such as the Swiss franc and the euro, as well as non-US risk assets. Emerging market, Asian, and European equities once again exhibit stronger momentum than US stocks. Since the early 2000s, Swiss franc strength has delivered US-dollar-based investors an average currency gain of approximately 3 percent per year on top of returns from Swiss assets—a trend that is likely to persist, given Switzerland’s structurally lower inflation and the broader derisking dynamic.

Gold may also appear attractive in this context, especially given its strong recent performance. We continue to see gold as a valuable long-term diversifier. However, given today’s historically elevated real price levels, we do not believe that aggressively chasing the rally is prudent. The risk of procyclical overallocation and potential bubble dynamics cannot be dismissed—even if the rally may continue for some time.

Instead, we believe a measured diversification away from US dollar assets toward a broader array of non-USD risk assets is warranted. For years, investors who underweighted US equities—particularly US technology stocks—were penalized. But given today’s far-reaching geopolitical shifts and the extremely stretched valuations of US tech stocks, the era of US market dominance may be coming to an end, at least for now.

‍

Download

Nadja Bleuler

Chief Economist, Partner
Über MFO
Marcuard Family Office wurde 1998 in Zürich gegründet und ist ein unabhängiges, partnergeführtes Multi-Family Office.
Warum?
Als Family Office kümmern wir uns umfassend um alle relevanten Vermögensthemen. Damit Ihnen Zeit bleibt für andere Dinge.
Wann?
Ganz gleich, ob Sie Ihr Unternehmen verkaufen, die aktuelle Situation restrukturieren, oder schwierige familiäre Verhältnisse meistern – die damit verbundenen Herausforderungen können überwältigend sein. Als erfahrene Berater begleiten wir Sie professionell durch Phasen des Übergangs und auch durch ruhigere Zeiten.
Rechtliche Hinweise
Copyright © 2025 Marcuard Family Office in Zürich. Alle Rechte vorbehalten
Datenschutzbestimmungen | Impressum | Disclaimer