Kategorie: Investment Outlook

Investment Outlook April 2024

Goldilocks reloaded? Risk assets rallied at the end of 2023 in anticipation of looser monetary conditions. And despite a countervailing rise in bonds yields, the rally continued throughout Q1 of this year. This suggests that markets not only expect tailwinds from a monetary policy about-face but also from improving economic prospects. Indeed, at the beginning [...]

Investment Outlook January 2024

Frayed Expectations The past year again confirmed that investors are compensated for taking on risk. Looking back, 2023 turned out to be an exceptional year for equities. In US dollar terms, the MSCI World global stock market index closed the year up 24 percent, fully recovering the previous year’s losses caused by central banks imposing [...]

Investment Outlook July 2023

Restraint, please! Following the turmoil in the banking system in March, the second quarter turned out to be surprisingly tranquil, as any significant economic and financial fallout failed to materialise, at least thus far. While credit growth in the US and Europe visibly slowed, global business prospects evolved stably, mainly supported by strong consumer demand [...]

Investment Outlook October 2022

It’s swing time The volatile capital markets in the third quarter may foreshadow what the economy will face over the longer term, with several factors suggesting that the global economy has transitioned from an era of placid moderation to one of elevated volatility. Economic conditions continued to cool in Q3 for the most part, while [...]

Investment Outlook July 2022

Reality check As they did in the first quarter, central banks and financial markets had again to swiftly revise their expectations in Q2 about inflation, the path of monetary policy and the growth outlook. The first quarter’s narrative centered on inflation and the geopolitical risks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The second quarter added [...]

Investment Outlook April 2022

First a pandemic, then a war Just as most major economies were recovering from the latest, and presumably last really debilitating Covid wave, the next catastrophe arrived as Russia invaded its small democratic neighbor, Ukraine. Although, in hindsight, Russia’s aggression was foreseeable, it took many observers by surprise, including us. Even correspondents on the ground [...]

Investment Outlook January 2022

Fading tailwinds In 2021 investors enjoyed another year of outstanding returns from risk assets. Public and private equity, hedge fund strategies and real estate investments all performed well, while “safe-haven” assets fixed income and gold disappointed. We think risk assets will shine again in 2022, but a bit less brightly. And this year we think [...]

Investment Outlook July 2021

Permanent or transitory? Throughout the second quarter, economic prospects continued to brighten for the major advanced economies. The global economy currently is posting buoyant activity levels supported by reopening businesses and the ongoing generous monetary and fiscal support. The global upswing has been accompanied by supply chain bottlenecks and sharp increases in the prices of [...]

Investment Outlook April 2021

So long, Covid, or long Covid? The emergence of effective vaccines late last year fueled hopes that the world could soon put the global pandemic behind it. “So long, Covid.” In response, the economic outlook brightened considerably, and manufacturing and global trade recovered surprisingly well. Accordingly, business climate indicators continue to point to an expanding [...]